SIGNALS is something we all are comfortable with. They are not new to us. We often read the well-established signals right, though there is always an element of doubt and error. Growing up and working in advertising and marketing was all about picking the right signals. Hence, my first reaction to the book SIGNAL by Dr Pippa Malmgren, which was not even on my radar, was like Signals! What is there to know about them?
I had not heard of the book, first published in 2016. And the loss was entirely mine. The book was strongly recommended in one of the WhatsApp groups in the discussion – if the Indian situation has worsened. Economics has been my weakest subject. I gave up on trying to differentiate between the thinking of great economists and understanding the curves. So, SIGNALS seemed interesting and something that could help.
Market And Economics and Signals.
I am a brand and marketing person, and I was not looking for any in-depth theoretical framework. However, my conviction on the basic understanding and existence of signals in every corner of the globe and every element of society was further strengthened.
If signals are read carefully and correctly, they can help predict the future or at least help you take evasive action on time. What is true of Economics is valid for the market and marketers. After all, the market is a part of economics.
Remember, Economics is not actually about numbers. (it makes me happy to read such a statement). Economics is about human behaviour, too (My territory). Numbers are merely a way of expressing human behaviour, though they are perhaps the least engaging way to observe economic signals. Simple events and things we can easily observe are much more compelling.’ I wish someone would have initiated me with this kind of introduction to economics, not the thick book with all sorts of curves and equations. And the same could apply to marketing- something I love.
Iterative Drag.
I read SIGNALS carefully. But, towards the end, I had to force myself to concentrate. The reason was twofold. One, I got the point well in advance and think it was unnecessarily over-emphasised. The framework did not need that level of pushing. Secondly, the author rightly introduced geopolitical reasoning and signals as an essential part of the reading, but that was not for me. 11 chapters and 334 pages were too many for the topic.
A Wide Spectrum of Examples.
The book does make some points about what and why of the current situation and the stance taken at the Government level. How much of human behaviour ( in economics) is really just another response-stimuli thing. It is all about hope and fear, the stretched social contract, and geopolitical ambitions. At the end of reading the book, nothing much would surprise you because by then, you would have visited a world where seemingly insignificant signals could define and direct you to a reading of the future.
No Right Solution Even When The Right Questions Are Asked.
Finally, it did make the point it has been labouring to make. There is no easy solution. There is no right or wrong way to read, understand, predict, or suggest. And that one does not need to be an expert to pick and read the signals, see and make decisions and then hope few of them turn out right. And then, you cannot escape trying to see things differently, which you should do anyway. I started questioning what it meant to the local economy when the Sai Baba Trust at Shirdi stopped every kind of offering. What does it mean when the Shahpur area’s new logistic spaces come up, and more furniture shops open? I hope I remain this new, enlightened, curious soul.
Past Is No Solution and Future Unpredictable.
The author says, “I have tried to weave together a picture of the world economy, connecting seemingly unrelated and even contradictory pieces of information that actually come together to form patterns. There are endless, easily observable signals that illuminate these patterns on the landscape of the world economy. One need not be an economist or an expert on algorithms to detect and discuss them. In fact, a little common sense might be a welcome addition to the usual conversation about economics.” And we all can just agree to it.
However, I do not share his optimism. Dr Pippa Malmgren writes, ‘It is my hope that by learning to interpret the signals, we can all, at the very least, become more flexible, more attuned to the dynamic nature of the world economy. With this knowledge, we can then pursue the best personal vision that hubris and fear of nemesis will permit. In this way, the world economy of tomorrow will progress regardless of the damage it has caused in the past.” It is not that the signals were not there or were not interpreted or wrongly interpreted. They were there. They will always be around. People observed and made their own decisions and recommendations. In the past, if we have been wrong, neither does it mean we will again be wrong, nor does it mean that we would have learnt the lessons and will be right.
Keep Reading The Signals, Be It Economics or Marketing.
Dr Pippa Malmgren says, “By raising awareness of the signals that we see every day, we can be empowered to make our own judgements and thereby better decisions about how to manage our economic life. No one has a monopoly on truth, nor is there a crystal ball that empowers anyone person or school of thought to predict the future with certainty. Instead, the world economy moves forward, or backwards, based on a multitude of decisions, whether made by famous policymakers or by anonymous individuals.”
People in advertising and marketing can read that again, replacing economics with marketing. And suddenly, I am more alive to the cacophony of otherwise silent signals around me.
Something You Always Knew.
There is a lot of space devoted to Central Banks and its role. This part sums it up beautifully, again telling you that some signals must be checked and read in context.
‘The central bank is also an institution of justice given that it has the ability to change the balance of power between the lenders and the creditors, between savers and speculators, between the state and the citizens. The decision to inflate is not just a technical economic decision; it is a political and social justice decision.‘ The author spends time with multiple examples from the past, the fight between inflation and deflation, the salt-water and Fresh-water thinkers, the perfect circle, and the impact of such decisions.
Aside.
Dr Pippa Malmgren also gives an example of Exhibition Road, South Kensington London, to make a point that how the removal of every signage can (and does) lead to accident rate collapse, as the pedestrian and the drivers – all become hypersensitive to the surrounding.
NETNET.
Towards the end, the author makes a statement, “… I hope I have imbued the thread of economics with some colours. Because economics is not grey nor boring. If anything, it is shocking neon that flashes warning all the time”. There is no denying that the author succeeded in it. I can only say that one could replace Economics with Marketing, and it still makes sense. And yes, the author has successfully shown neon colours in economics.
If you are not really into Economics as a subject, this book SIGNALS by Dr Pippa Malmgren is an interesting read- Read it. It makes sense of many things one did not understand or glossed over. As expected, there are no solutions, suggestions, or recommendations other than proactive innovations. The book focuses on the need to pay more attention to everyday signals around us to understand the cause-reaction nexus. Mmaine Signal Dekha Na Tuney Signal Dekha, Toh Confusion Ho Gay Araba Raba.
I quote the author for the last time- and this is the book’s essence. ‘… there is no need to rely on the words of an expert. Instead, I ask that you open your eyes and ask yourself what you see. You can and should observe for yourself the signals that the world economy is sending. Then you can make your own decisions and choose what to do about such signals based on your own risk-taking capabilities and skill.’
However (again quoting to finish), ‘Interpreting signals is a daunting task. Signals often conflict. Some are important, and others are merely noise. Signals can be overwhelming. Once you start to look for them. Oscar Wild got it right when he said that nowadays there is so little useless information.’
Happy Signal Watching, interpretation, and decision making. Na Maine Signal Dekha Na Usne Signal Dekha, Toh Confusion Ho Gay Araba Raba.Toh Blame Game Suru ho Gaya raba raba.
Final Warning, Signals or No Signals.
Try to imagine at least six impossible things before breakfast every day because the impossible is what inevitability happens.
SIGNALS: How Everyday Signs Can Help US Navigate the World’s Turbulent Economy. Dr Philippa Malmgren. Pages 334. INR 557.
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