The annual Pitch Madison Advertising Report is out and quite a few faces in media are smiling. It is a sunny forecast. Words people were waiting to hear. The euphoria is evident. The trust exists in the forecast. Like earlier PMARs, the industry is sure 2016 report will continue to accurate and directional.
Then what could be troubling me?
I try to look into 2017 and it does not give me a good feeling. The three decent years of advertising 10+ growth makes me jittery. Will the good feeling sweeping us during the T20 World cup, IPL, five state elections and Olympics last till the real festivals? I wish I had the answers. I only can hope that the brands will treat 2016-17-18 as a potentially single unit and plan with an eye on the future.
Do I have data to support it? NO.
Is the stage set for self-correction? May be.
Still in the absence of the above, I carry on.
I have been a huge fan of logical Intuitive Intelligence.
I do not like the feeling surrounding the industry. The smell is not too good. We have been debating fake viewership frauds in case of digital ads. The other media frauds are not even spoken about. Programmatic advertising is projected as efficiency enhancer. Digital continues to fail in accessibility, availability and affordability parameters. In spite of smartphones surge, most mobiles in country remain voice only or data only. People are tired of the Gs. The 4G experience is no different. The digital wave has become a lie. And print has been declared dead so often that now we can have a healthy panel discussion to explain its continued growth. Some institutes may even run a programme ‘Survival Media Guide by Print’.
PMAR release was like a hormonal shot. TV rejoiced. Print took a deep breath of relief. Radio, OOH and Cinema clapped happily. Digital was confused; not knowing where was it going wrong. The buzz would make one believe that a Digital Media tsunami was right there.
Digital – the fastest growing media is still seeking the tipping point. The Media Marketers fraternity remains frightened of the mirage of a tipping point.
It’s time for media agencies and clients to stop being unidirectional media obsessed. Digital or otherwise. Their focus need to be efficiencies/ effectiveness and not traders of a particular media. It will do industry a lot good if it also devoted fraction of its time in re-learning and experimenting with traditional media.
Let’s look around.
TV is going the regional way. Fragmentation seems to be working for it. Soon expect regional channels (of large brands) to start creating revenue music. TV has been fiercely proactive and adaptive to the demands of third and fourth screen. It has made better investment in this area. The screen+ or multiple screen measurement of viewership will further strengthen TV position.
GECs seem to be banking on fairy tales- mythology- history or even myths. News TV had been creating sensationalism and anchor brands. The infrastructure stretch is visible in under-productive story follow-up and lack of fresh visuals or insights. Channels can be expected to continue the self-sabotaging process of follow-the-leader for content direction. So nothing remains fresh in the TV shop. They all look and feel the same. This will push for more dosage of Reality TV. More formats and programmes in reality TV will be seen.
Do expect short movies especially made for TV; mini-serials with subtly integrated brand messaging and channel teams creating advertiser brand-centric programmes.
Print is making good with a Net Gain in copies and readers. Its problem has been its dependence on volume growth with decreasing yield. Something brands are finding tough to fight.
Yet, availability of free content, speed of information on social media and audio-visual led TV has failed to dampen the power of editorial engagement through morning newspaper. The question: till when will this continue? It is holding on. The country’s lack of real pace of infrastructural and digital growth brings smile to publishers. It is their ticket business. I am not betting but will not be surprised at another attempt at editorial led weekend paper surviving on cover price is made by one of the leading brands.
Magazines are racing each other to the death bed. Niche magazines with content exclusivity and a digital overlap are the new dudes in town. They are expected to keep engaging their limited audience on higher cover/ subscription price.
Radio is waiting for the real impact of the auctions. There are bound to be course corrections. New content strategies are being drawn and will be tested soon. The gap between auction and implementation is giving brands time to get ready. Fortunately, we are still far away from highly cluttered airwaves.
OOH is waiting for the clients to embrace the digital technology. Cinema is looking at consolidation across screens and markets. Slowly expect a hardening of cinema rates and possibility of enhanced interactivity with centralised discussions and control with chain of screens.
Now what?
Disruptive technology led changes will be the norms. As will be experimentation. There will be a graveyard full with failed and vanquished brands. The investment climate will taper off in some time. The biggies (GEC) of e-commerce like Flipkart, Amazon, snapdeal etc. will have to re-evaluate their media strategies. They will finally move to Mobile and Digital. Do not expect that to happen in next 18 months. The newer apps and services will experiment with localised impact where radio and regional TV will benefit. Many apps and services will continue to die.
The education category will keep dwindling. Hospitality and hospital business will keep increasing. FMCG will continue to be the saviour and will find need to balance their topical-tactical with brand investments. Industry will pray for a Nirma, Ghadi or Flipkart to happen in some category. And the prayers will be answered. I&B ministry will remain cordial with the advertising bodies but will be pressurised to show some stronger reaction to advertised false promises. Media measurement will remain where they are. Print will suffer because of its non-evolving measurement, Radio and OOH will remain unmeasured. Digital will continue to be the most measured and least believed measurement.
Technology may negatively impact employment. Areas where ‘man-in-the-loop’ is not a necessity will be impacted the most. This will build insecurity. And then the euphoric sentiments will die an accelerated death. The more there is a hint of it, the faster the media will fuel the fire. Leading to a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Media agencies must also be careful in their spending. They need to cover for advertisers that can go kaput in quick time. All large agencies have financial guidelines but they have never proved to be enough.
It may be the right time.
Take a deep breath and dive deep into implications.
Do not miss the ‘TIP’ in absence of ‘Tipping point’
…………
First published in MXMINDIA.com
